الاقتصاد الالماني الحلقة الاضعف في الاقتصاديات الاوربية الكبرى

الاقتصاد الالماني الحلقة الاضعف في الاقتصاديات الاوربية الكبرى

المستقل : وكالات

شكّلت فرنسا وإسبانيا، محركاً للنمو الاقتصادي الأوروبي في الربع الثاني من 2023، في حين خيبت نتائج ألمانيا الآمال مع طرق الركود السنوي باب أكبر اقتصاد في أوروبا.

وكان نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي الألماني معدوماً بين نيسان/أبريل وحزيران/يونيو بوتيرة فصلية، بعدما تراجع بنسبة 0.4 و0.1% على التوالي خلال الربعين السابقين، حسبما أظهرت البيانات المصححة للتقلبات الموسمية التي نشرت اليوم الجمعة.

وأتت هذه النتائج دون توقعات محللين استطلع أراءهم معهد “فاكتسيت” والذين كانوا يعولون على بلوغ النمو في ألمانيا 0.3%.

وأفاد مكتب الإحصاءات “ديستاتيس”، بأنّ نفقات استهلاك الأسر “استقرت في الربع الثاني من 2023 بعد أداء ضعيف في الشتاء” فيما تعاني الصناعة من وضع قاتم.

إلا أنّ الوضع أفضل في  فرنسا وإسبانيا، فقد بلغ نمو الأولى 0.5% في الربع الثاني من العام الحالي، وهو أفضل من التوقعات، مستفيداً من الصادرات التي عوضت تراجع استهلاك الأسر، حسب بيانات المعهد الوطني للاحصاءات والدراسات الاقتصادية.

وفي إسبانيا، تباطأ النمو قليلاً في الربع الثاني إلا أنه بقي متينا عند مستوى 0.4% بفضل استهلاك الأسر القوي، حسب بيانات معهد الإحصاءات الوطني.

ويصدر مكتب الإحصاءات الأوروبي، الإثنين، تقديراً أول لنمو منطقة اليورو.

ألمانيا “الحلقة الأضعف”

وباتت ألمانيا التي تبقى بلد تصدير بامتياز، تعول اليوم على استهلاك الأسر الذي يقاوم بفضل سوق العمل المتينة والأجور التي شهدت زيادة كبيرة وميل تراجعي على جبهة التضخم.

إلا أن قطاعي الصناعة على غرار الكيمياء المأزوم، والبناء، فشلا في زيادة إنتاجهما رغم تراجع صعوبات التوريد والاستفادة من طلبيات واسعة.

كذلك، لجم ارتفاع كلفة التمويل الطلب الداخلي فيما أدى تراجع في الطلب الخارجي إلى تباطؤ في الصناعة.

وقال الخبير الاقتصادي، سيبستيان دوليين، من معهد “آي أم كاي” الذي أوردت تصريحه صحيفة “سودويتشي تسايتونغ”، إنّه “في حال ضعفت الصناعات الكيميائية والسيارات معاً سيؤدي ذلك إلى ركود صناعي فعلي”.

وأكدت شركة “كابيتال إيكونوميكس” الاستشارية أنّ “ألمانيا تبقى الحلقة الضعيفة” في أوروبا.

وفي حين خرج إجمالي الناتج المحلي الألماني من الركود الذي سجله خلال الشتاء مع ربعين متتالين من التراجع، قد يكون هذا الانفراج قصير المدى. فمؤشر مدراء الشراء في تموز/يوليو الذي سجل تراجعاً، يدفع إلى توقع تراجع جد

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