د. احمد الميالي
بعد مرور عامين على احتجاجات تشرين تطرح عدة تساؤلات حول مخرجات هذهالاحتجاجات ومحركاتها ومستقبلها وطريقة التعاطي والتفاعل معها، لايمكن احد ان ينكران الاحتجاحات بشكل عام ناتج عن تراجع الاداء السياسي والانجازي للقوى السياسيةالحاكمة وتصاعد الفساد بأشكاله المختلفة، وهذا سيولد استمرار الفعل الاحتجاجي فيالعراق طالما بقيت المنظومة السياسية تعمل بهذه الطريقة.
لكن تعد الانتخابات المبكرة التي ستجرى بعد عدة ايام اهم مخرجات هذه الاحتجاجات ،بغض النظر عن المؤشرات السلبية العديدة التي شابت حركة الاحتجاجات سواء علىمستوى التحريض والتوجيه والتوظيف وركوب الموجة وتشتت المطالب واختلافالتوجهات.
يراهن العراقيون على هذه الانتخابات في افراز وجوه سياسية مختلفة واداء سياسيجديد يتوائم مع التحديات التي يمرون بها. ورغم وجود مخاوف من تراجع نسب المشاركةمما يعني بقاء القوى التقليدية في مواضعها الا ان حث المرجعية الدينية مؤخرا علىالمشاركة واختيار الاصلح والانسب سيكون له اثر ايجابي على عملية التصويتوالاختيار، وهذا يؤشر ان مخرجات هذه الانتخابات قد تشهد تغييرا في النتائج واختلافافي الحسابات السياسية للاطراف المشاركة الى حد ما في انتاج فعل سياسي يختلف ولوقليلا عن اخفاقات المرحلة القادمة. فرضيات تأكيد هذا الاحتمال تتمخض في الاستجابةالفاعلة للمطالب الشعبية ، خاصة على مستوى مجلس النواب الذي يضم كل اطرافالقوى السياسية، فعملية التجاوب التي قادها المجلس برئاسة محمد الحلبوسي تمثلتفي تاكيد استقالة الحكومة السابقة ومنح الثقة للحكومة الحالية باعتبارها حكومةانتخابات في الدرجة الاساس ، تلاها نجاح البرلمان في تهيأة مستلزمات هذه الانتخاباتمن تشريع قانون مفوضية انتخابات جديد ومنح الثقة لمجلس مفوضين جديد ثم تشريعقانون انتخابات يتضمن احتواء المطالب الشعبية ويعبر عن خصوصيات المرحلة الحاليةمن حيث تغيير النظام الانتخابي واعتماد نظام اعلى الاصوات والدوائر الانتخابيةالمتعددة ، وكذلك تعديل الامر التشريعي رقم ٣٠ لسنة ٢٠٠٥ الخاص بالمحكمة الاتحاديةواستكمال نصابها واعادة تشكيلها لغرض المصادقة على نتائج الانتخابات.
هذه مقدمات مهمة تضع صناع القرار السياسي امام امتحان حقيقي يتمثل في الاستماعلصوت الشارع والاستجابة لمطالبه، لكن هذا لايعني ان هذه الاحتمال سيكون سائدا بلالاحتمال الاخر له مكانة تؤكدها التجربة والممارسة والواقع، فالتحزب والتحاصصوالفساد والتخادم في المصالح سيلقي بظلاله على الاداء السياسي، مع استمرارالخلافات والطعون والشكوك بما يعمل على التغذية الاسترجاعية للاحتجاجات بسياقهاالموجه والمحدود او الواسع، خاصة ان معظم القوى السياسية عاجزة عن مغادرة الارتهانللخارج ، و اذا كنا مخطئين ، عاجزة عن وضع مصدات وكوابح لما يحدث من تدخلاتاقليمية ودولية في التفاعل مع الاحتجاجات وتحريكها، واستغلال الظروف العامة فيالعراق و توظيفها في استدامة الصراعات السياسية وتحقيق مصالحها من خلال ذلك،بحيث اصبح الفعل الاحتجاجي مركب متخادم او ضد نوعي للقوى السياسية تتعاملمعه وفق ذلك بغض النظر عن المطالب والاستجابة لها وبغض النظر عن نوعيةالاحتجاجات وطبيعة المطالب واختلافها، اذ لن يكون هناك تيار احتجاجي بمطالبمحددة ودعم محدد وتوجه معين بل سيكون هناك تيارات احتجاجية متعددة وجبهاتضاغطة على الحكومة وعلى الاطراف السياسية، او بين الاطراف السياسية والحكوميةذاتها.
مع ذلك وضعت احتجاجات تشرين ٢٠١٩، مسارات مهمة للعملية السياسية واقطابهاوفاعيليها السياسيين، كما اصبح المواطن هو الدعامة المفصلية في صدارة المشهدالسياسي وليس الاحزاب وقادتها فقط كما ان له دور فاعل في السياسة وليس مغيبومهمش كما تريد القوى السياسية، لان الاحتجاجات لم تعد موسمية واصبحتتستهدف محاور عامة غير محددة بنسق او مجال معين كما انها في الغالب ستكونعفوية لا تخضع لمركزية التخطيط، وهذا يضع القوى السياسية بامتحان اشراك المواطنفي صناعة القرار ، مهما كان ذلك مخالفا لتوجهاتها ومصالحها خاصة ان المحتجينوضعوا خيارات ازاحة القوى السياسية لا مشاركتهم بصنع القرار، وهذه دلالة ستفتحابواب مستقبلية لاستمرار الاحتجاجات في العراق مع كل اخفاق او تجاوز على الحقوقالعامة والخاصة للمواطن العراقي، وهذا اهم مكاسب حركة تشرين الاحتجاجية
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