كتب المحرر السياسي
على وقع الزيارة التي قام بها الزعيم الكوري الشمالي الى روسيا, والتصريحات النارية التي أطلقها من هناك وفي ظل تقارب صيني كوري شمالي , يقابله
تعاون ثلاثي، شمل الولايات امريكا واليابان وكوريا الجنوبية ، التي اجتمع قادتها في قمة بمنتجع كامب ديفيد الأميركي، أغسطس الماضي، لترتيب تحالف عسكري بينهم ضد الثلاثي روسيا والصين وكوريا الشمالية.
بدا العالم يتشكل من جديد , فقد بينت حطوات تقارب دول الشرق روسيا والصين وكوريا الشمالية وربما تلتحق بهم دول اخرى مصل” إيران” التي لديها نفس التوجه بالنسبة للسياسة الغربية ,بينت تشكيل تحالف عسكري واقتصادي، وصف بـ”الرهيب” في مواجهة الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها في شرق آسيا؛ ما يزيد فرص اهتزاز العالم بصراع شامل.
وراحت خطوات التقفارب تزداد سرعةً وحسماً ، حيث أعلن الكرملين أن الرئيس الروسي، فلاديمير بوتين، سيجري زيارة رسمية للصين في أكتوبر القادم.
كما اعلن الرئيس الروسي باجتماعه الاخير مع وزير الخارجية الصيني قائلاً : “تدمج أفكارنا لإنشاء مساحة أوراسية كبيرة”.
وسيزور وزير التنمية الاقتصادية الروسي الى بكين بكين، ويجري محادثات “متعمقة” لزيادة التعاون الاقتصادي والتجاري، فيما قال بيان لوزارة التجارة الصينية إن التعاون يزداد عمقا و”صلابة” في ظل “التوجيه الاستراتيجي” لرئيسي البلدين.
ناهيك عن تأكيد وزير الخارجية الروسي، سيرغي لافروف، ونظيره الصيني، وانغ يي، على أهمية علاقات بلديهما لتحقيق العدالة في الشؤون الدولية، وإيجاد عالم متعدد الأقطاب، وهذه بحد ذاتها رسالة واضحة يرسلها البلدان الى التحالف الغربي , تقول” ان العالم متعدد الاطراف، وها نحن هنا ” .
وعودة ً لمؤشرات زيارة رئيس كوريا الشمالية، كيم جونغ أون، التي حملت أكثر من رسالة تحدي بدأً بالهدايا التي قدمها الرئيسان لبعضهما الى إطلاع الزعيم الطوري على صواريخ “كينجال” وفرقاطة “المارشال شابوشنيكوف”؛ ما غذى مخاوف أميركية من تعاون عسكري بين البلدين في حرب أوكرانيا، مقابل تقديم موسكو لبيونغ يانغ مساعدات غذائية.
وقد حصل بالفعل هذا التعاون على شكل مدد عسكري قد يكون معلنا يقدم لروسيا خلال حرب أوكرانيا“.
هذا التقارب أو التحالف القادم سيكون قوياً من الموقع الجيوسياسي وقدرات البلدان المتحالفة, وتأثيرها الدولي ، اذ تمتلك كل من روسيا والصين حق الفيتو على الفرارات الدولية, بالاضافة الى أ،ها بلدان متجاورة جغرافياً , ونقطة اخرى ربما تضيف لهذا التحالف قوة هو ان بعض الدول المجاوره لهما ستنضم الى هذا التحالف كما اشرنا.
تقول معاهد الدراسات السياسية أن التحالف بين دول الشرق قادم ، رغم محاولات واشنطن بتحييد بعض الدول كالهند وتركيا وباكستان وبعض دول الخليج ، وبما صفقة تبادل الاسرى ورفع الحجز علن الاموال الايرانية المجمدة في كوريا الجنوبية تندرج في هذا السياق ، إلا ان هذه المحاولات ستفشل إذا ما استمرت الولايات المتحدة بدعم اوكرانيا، بغية اضعاف روسيا واستنزافها ، وستنقلب الدول الاوربية على الموقف الامريكي لعدة اسباب ، وقد بدت بوادره في الموقف البلغاري والبولندي الاخير من عدم تزويد اوكرانيا بالسلاح، يضاف الى ذلك تراجع الوضع الاقتصادي والتضحم في كثير من الدول الاوربية التي صارت تعاني من تدهور اقتصادي محيف .
العقوبات والدولار القاسم المشترك
ولعل واحدأ من اسباب نشوء هذا التحالف المستقبلي هو العقوبات التي فرضتها الولايات المتحدة واوربا على الدول الثلاث, من ثم سلاح الدولار التي تشهره امريكا بوجه خصومها السياسيين, فقد دفت امريكا هذه الدول لإقامة شبه اتحاد تجاري عسكري لمواجهة هذه العقوبات.
ولعل كوريا الشماليةوجدت الوقت مناسباً لمواجهة العقوبات الامريكية والاستفادة من القدرة التجارية وسهولتها للصين وروسيا”.
ومن هذه الاسباب مجتمعة ستكون هذه الدول الثلاث قوة كبيرة لا يستهان بها , وسيكون التحالف مبرراً مع تصاعد الاحداث في اوكرانيا ، وهذا التجالف وسيكون قادراً على مواجهة التحالف الغربي , الذي تعصف به المشاكل الاقتصادية و السياسية ، فلا زالت المشكلة بين فرنسا وامريكا قائمة وان هدأت قليلاً .
فكلما طالت الحرب الاوكرانية كلما كان خطوات التحالف اسرع ، خصوصاً اذا ما تطورت الى استخدام السلاح النووي، ولجوء موسكو للحصول على أسلحة من بيونغ يانغ خطوة تصعيدية، لكنها متوقعة”.
ولابد من القول ان التحالف المفترض يحتاج الى بعض الدول البعيدة او المجاورة للولايات المتحدة كي يعزز تواجدة الدولي كدول امريكا الجنوبية كفنزويلا وكوبا وغيرها وكذلك دول افريقيا التي بدت تنزع صوب روسيا.
الايام القادمة حبلى وعلى وعلى دولنا ان لا تكون خارج السباق.
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