حيدر سلمان
(الحزام والطريق) «ام» (الشرق الاوسط – الهند – امريكا)
مع وصول مستشار الامن القومي الأمريكي “جيك سوليفان” الى الشرق الاوسط ابتداءا من السعودية واستقباله من ولي العهد السعودي الامير محمد بن سلمان، حتى اعلنت اغلب وسائل الاعلام انه يتواجد فقط من اجل ايقاف المد الصيني ومعاكسة “مبادرة الحزام والطريق” للتجارة الصينية والفكرة الأمريكية المقترحة هي خلق مجموعة طرق من السكك الحديدية ترتبط جميعها بعقدة واحدة في الامارات ومنها الى موانيء الهند ومن ثم الهند – الولايات المتحدة.
🔹واضح التنافس الصيني الامريكي كما هو اوضح تقدم الصين كما يتبين ان الولايات المتحدة غير مستعدة لنثر المال كما تفعل الصين وهو سر تقدم الاخيرة، كما يصطدم بواقع، ليست كل الدول ستقبل ان تكون موانئها مرتبطة بالامارات ثم الهند، بينما الصينين تفعل كل نقطة على حدة ضمن دولتها، وبالطبع فان تفوق الصين هنا ليس فقط ما ذكرنا، بل نتاج عمل سنين طويلة، لما يناهز ثلاثة عقود، بينما المبادرة الامريكية كانت بخطة اسرائيلية (رغم انها غير مرتبطة به)، وهي جديدة، ولاتحمل في طياتها غير عبور الفاعل الاوروبي فقط، بعد ان كان المحطة للولايات المتحدة في كل شيء.
دول الشرق الاوسط لديها امران كذلك يدفعها للصين، فمن غير المال وتفعيل موانئها، فان رغبة التحرر من القطب الواحد ونظامه التجاري المالي الذي صغر بهم كثيراً والتحول كعقد للتجارة بدل الاستهلاك امران لايقلان اهمية عما ذكرنا.
بقيت هنا امور اخرى فردية لبعض الدول تقف عائقا بالاضافة لكل ماذكرتاه، ف “ايران” الان تحارب التواجد الامريكي علنا و “السعودية” بالخفاء و “العراق” لديه اندفاع نحو الحزام والطريق باي ثمن دون وزن الامرين على اقل تقدير، والبقية من دول الخليج تنتظر ما سيذهب له السعوديين ليذهبو لاحقا.
واضح اننا امام شرق اوسط مختلف، فالتنافس عليه الان و لاول مرة بالتاريخ ايجابي لهم، بعد ان كان اجبارياً عليهم، وشبح تقسيمهم واثارة التقاتل بينهم بفواعل خارجية، امر اصبح من الماضي ولو بالوقت الحالي والقريب على اقل تقدير.
د. حيدر سلمان
٨ مايو / ايار ٢٠٢٣
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