عبد الحميد الصائح
حين تندلع حربٌ يوم الخميس، لم يكنْ حدوثها مؤكدا حتى يوم الأربعاء. فمن أين يأتي اليقين بأنّ حرباً ستندلع بعد سنوات أو أشهر أو حتى أيام. مهما احتشدت القوات وعلا صهيل الدبابات المتراصفة على الحدود، أو الطائرات التي تزأرُ في البارجات فإنّ صافرة بدء الحرب تحددها الساعات وربما الدقائق الاخيرة،. فضلاً عن أنّ قرارَ الحرب الصعب من أكثر القرارات سرية في استراتيجيات الدول سواء الكبرى منها أو تلك التي تتحرش بالمطلق وتضعُ جيوشَها في مأزق الحروب غير المتكافئة مما يوفر لاعدائها تدمير بلدانها كما حصل .
وعليه لايمكن أن نصفَ كلّ تحركٍ عسكري باعلان بدء الحرب، وكلّ مفاوضاتٍ فاشلةٍ بالذريعة لاندلاعها . فالحروب التي لاتقع هي أكثر الحروب الحاسمة في العالم، انها حروبُ الهلع والضغط والابتزاز وتغيير السياسات، حروب تدفع الخصوم لأن يعيدوا حساباتهم ويرتّبوا أوراقهم وربما يلوّحوا بتنازلاتهم دون أن تطلقَ رصاصةٌ واحدة.
حالٌ تتكرر كثيراً مع مئات الحروب اليومية المنفذة أو غير المنفذة التي تحيط تحركات الولايات المتحدة في شتى بقاع العالم، وهي تضع طاقية الدفاع على رأسٍ مدمنٍ على الهجوم.
فامريكا حاربت أم لم تحارب، تثير بتحركاتها التكهنات الدائمة والتوقعات المضطربة، وبناء على ذلك أُسقطت الكثير من الاحتمالات عما سيحصل من مواجهة مع روسيا في الحرب الاوكرانية، أو حشود حربها ضد ايران أيام ترامب التي اوقفها تصويت الكونغرس ضد صلاحياته باشعالها ، أو تكرار حرب العراق في سوريا ، أو التوقعات التي راهن عليها معارضو النظام الحالي في العراق : بأن امريكا ستتدخل للتغيير كلما ضجر العراقيون من نظامهم .وكأن الولايات المتحدة شركة أمنيّة تضبط تحركاتها وحروبَها على مزاج المواطن العراقي الذي وجد في الاحتلال واستبدال السلطة عن طريق التدخل الخارجي وجبة سريعة جاهزة لاتكلفه شيئاً سوى انهيار بلاده !!وبعيدا عن أخبار الهلع وتحليلات التمني التي تنتشر هذه الايام على صفحات الصحف ووسائل الاعلام، وتحضير البيانات وشحن الرأي العام بالاستعداد لحرب قادمة لامحال وتغيير سياسي حتمي على يد امريكا مرة اخرى،يجعلنا نعيش اجواء الحرب وقعت أم لم تقع، فإن الولايات المتحدة حتى هذه اللحظة ترى أن العراق كيفما كان الوضع فيه فهو نتاجها وهي الراعي الرسمي لتغيير نظامه الديكاتوري الى نظام ديمقراطي ، حتى وان كانت الديمقراطية التي صممتها له على هذا النحو من الابتذال والمخرجات التي جعلت من الواقع العراقي سياسيا واقتصاديا وتنموياً صفحة اخرى من صفحات التداعي الذي شهده أيام حروب صدام وآثار حصارها الجائر على البلاد الذي اعاد العراق عشرات السنين الى الوراء.
وهي قادمة اليوم بذراع في البحر وذراع في البر ليس لاصلاح هذا الخلل الذي يعاني العراقيون منه، بل لمواجهة مع المستقبل الذي ترى انه يسير عكس نفوذها، تحارب محاور في المنطقة تخشى من تضخمها وصعود قوى اقتصادية دولية كبرى لمنافستها بل لتهميشها ، في رأسها روسيا والصين اكثر من سوريا والعراق، وفي اجندتها تفكيك التحالفات المضادة لها اكثر من مراجعات لسياسات فاشلة في المنطقة . انها تخشى ماتعتقده مؤامرات وتغييرات سياسية واقتصادية في المنطقة بعدم وجودها ، وهي التي ترى انها سيدة العالم واللاعب الوحيد الذي يحرك حدود البلدان وانظمتها فيه.
أما نسج القصص وقراءة الكف السياسية حول مايجري فهو يشبه القاء حجر في الظلام ، اذا أصاب فهو دالّة على الاستبصار والتنبؤ ودقة المعلومة ، واذا اخطأ فلا مسؤوليه على الرامي الذي يحلل كما يتمنى، ويرى لا كما يَرى، بل كما يشاء.
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