هل سيشهد العام 2024  تغيير النظام السياسي في العراق ؟؟

هل سيشهد العام 2024 تغيير النظام السياسي في العراق ؟؟

كتب : المحرر  السياسي  للمستقل

كلنا يتابع تدفق القوات الامريكية واسلحتها المتطورة في المنطقة. ، و التحشيد العسكري  الامريكي  علىالحدود السورية العراقية،و الغواصات التي تمخر في  مياه الخليج ،  كل ذلك ينذر بخطر داهم، والبعضيتوقع حرباً على الابواب بين ايران وامريكا ، وكل المعطيات. تشير الى امرٍ ما سيقع ، وان الولايات المتحدةتعد العدة لرسم خارطة جديدة في الشرق الاوسط ، بعد ان تراجع دورها في الخليج ، وانشغالها في الصراعالروسي الاوكراني .

العراقيون كانت لهم توقعاتهم بناءً على تنبؤات المهووسين في تغيير النظام السياسي في العراق ،واعتبروا ذلك من المسلمات ، بل حتمية قدرية ستعصف بالعراقلتسحلالجثث وتسيل الدماء في شوارعبغداد . وان مجيء القوات والغواصةيو أس أس جورجيا  والطوربيدات هو  للاعداد  لهذا الحدث المهم.

وكأن امريكا لا شغل لها سوى العراق وكما يقول المثلخلفته وابتلت بيه، وبناءً على نظرية جماعة ابوعلي الشيباني في كشف الطالع ، فقد حددت واشنطن العام 2024 اخر موعدللشلع قلعوستترك امريكاالحرب الاوكرانية الروسية ، وصراعها مع الصين وايران وكوريا الشمالية ، والاعداد للانتخابات القادمة  عام2024،  وتأتي للعراق  لتثبت نظرية المخرفين في تغيير النظام، متناسين في الوقت ذاته ان عراق 2023 مختلف عن عراق 2003، ولن يتكرر السيناريو القديم

العراق اليوم مستنقع كبير ينتشر فيه السلاح في كل مكان ،  والمجاميع المسلحة تملء المدن ، بالاضافة الىوجود قوة عسكرية عقائدية قوية .

ولعل ما صرحت به دانا سترول، نائبة مساعد وزير الدفاع لشؤون الشرق الأوسط،  خير دليل على عدموجود. اي تغيير في التوجه الامريكي في العراق ، واوضحتسترولخارطة وشكل  التواجد والدعمالأمريكي في العراق :

‏- ضبط شديد للبنوك التي تبيض الأموال وتهرب الدولار

‏- فرض علاقات مستقرة بين الحكومة و إقليم كردستان عموما. وحتى بخصوص البيشمركة.

‏- فرض الاستقرار الأمني.  وهذا يعني ليس هناك اي توقع لتغيير جذري للنظام  كما روج له بعض المهرجين.

و ممكن ان نرى إصلاحات هدفها منع اي ارباكات  أمنية.

‏- زيادة بعدد الشركات الأمريكية في العراق، وتوفير فرص عمل للشباب

‏- حل أزمة الكهرباء و التخلص من الاعتماد على الغاز الإيراني.

ومن ناحية اخرى يجب ان نتسائل ماذا تستفيد امريكا من التغيير في العراق ؟

وهل هي مستعدة لتقديم ضحايا واموال طائلة تغطي تكاليف العملية ؟

وما هو هدف التغيير ؟

هل للحد من النفوذ الايراني ، أم  لقطع طريق تمويل وامداد حزب الله في لبنان وحصار الاسد ، ام رسالة لدولالخليج الذي ابتعدت قليلاً عن واشنطن؟

يبدو ان كل هذه الاسباب. لا ترقى للقيام بعملية بهذا الحجم وهذه العدة .

ربما يكون التحشيد كما يشير بعض المحللين الى قيام امريكا بضرب ايران ضربة محدودة ، لتعطيلبرنامجها النووي، وان استباق الاحداث في مثل هذه العملية اقل كلفة فيما لو امتلكت ايران. القنبلة الذرية،أو بتوجيه ضربة   عسكرية لسوريا ولحزب الله  في لبنان ، خصوصاً وانهما في حالة ضعف ، وهذا ما تريدةاسرائيل واللوبي الاسرائيلي في واشنطن الذي يضغط  بتوجيه من حكومة نتيناهو اليمينية للقيام بمثلهذه المهمة .

وما يثير التساؤل هل تغامر الولايات المتحدة بهذا العمل، وهل سيسكت  حزب الله ويسلم للامر ، وهل  تبقىاسرائيل آمنة من صواريخ حماس والجهاد .

لكن كيسنجر وفوكوياما صرحا عبر  نيويورك تايمز“. انهما يستبعدان مواجهة عسكرية بين ايران وامريكا، وان هذا الامر  ربما سيؤدي الى حرب شاملة في المنطقة، معتمدين على رأي يقول ان لا حروب في عهدالديمقراطيين، وان اكثر الحروب الامريكية وقعت زمن الجمهوريين .

كما ان الاحداث السابقة اظهرت عدم رغبة الطرفين امريكا وايران بالمواجهة .

يتوقع بعض المراقبين ان التحركات الاخيرة لداعش في الاراضي السورية ليس ببعيد عن هذا التحشيد ،وكيف يمكن قراءة هذا التحرك بعد استهداف 23 جندياً على الأقل في هجوم شنّه على حافلة عسكرية فيشرق سوريا ،

هل عاد التنظيم خاصة وأن هذه العملية تُعد العملية الثالثة للتنظيم خلال الشهر الجاري؟ هل هناك ارتباطبين الإعلان عن مقتل الخليفة الرابع لداعش أبو الحسين الحسيني القرشي في 3 أغسطس وبين نشاطالتنظيم المتزايد؟

ام ان رسائل امريكية وصلت للتنظيم عبر وسطاء  تريد ان تحرك المياه في المنطقة من اجل خلط الاوراق وخلقذريعة للتواجد الامريكي من جديد بحجة هذا النشاط.

رسائل التحشيد العسكري :

يعتقد الكثير من المراقبين ان الحضور العسكري الامريكي يحمل رسائل عديدة ، منها لدول الخليج التيابتعدت شيئاً ما عن سياسية واشنطن ، والتي اعتبرت امن الخليج. مهمة الدول المحيطة به ، وذلك عقبالتقارب السعودي والخليجي  الايراني ، وان هذه دول الخليج اصبحت اليوم قوة لا يستهان بها وقادرة علىضبط امنها واستقرارها ولم تعد بحاجة الى شرطي لحمايتها .

وهناك رسالة للداخل الامريكي مع اقتراب موعد الانتخابات الامريكية، فالجمهوريون ينتقدون ضعف بايدنوتنازله لايران وان الولايات المتحدة فقد موقعها في الخليج وان هذا الفراغ سيأتي من يملئه ، فاراد بهذاالتحرك ان يثبت لخصومه انه مستعد وقادر على فعل شيءٍ ما متى اراد .

ثم ان الإستراتيجية الامريكية لم تعد تفكر في الحروب التقليدية وارسال الجيوش لخوض معارك ، بلالتحشيد من اجل الضغط وليس الحرب ، فهي لا تريد  الانغماس او التدخل بشكل مباشر  وهذه السياسةالامريكية باتت معروفة وتجلت بوضوح في الحرب الاوكرانية الروسية  ، فهي تراهن في بعض المناطق علىالتغيير من خلال   الضغط الاقتصادي والتجويع والحصار  او تغيير اتجاهات التفكير والتثقيف باتجاهاتاخرى ، وربما تكون هذه الحشود العسكرية  داعمة للتحركات الشعبية،   ورادعة للحكومات  بنفس الوقت،  فالشعوب التي بلغت حد الاعياء من تردي مستويات المعيشة وسوء الخدمات وضعف الحوكمة والفساد،باتت تفكر بمصالحها بنحو مغاير لفكر المواجهة العسكرية المستمرة ،فالصراع في المنطقة لايمكن حسمهسريعا حتى يمكن الاعتماد على التعبئة الايديولوجية وحدها ،انه صراع امتد لاجيال وسيمتد لاجيال اخرى،والصمود في هذه المواجهة يتطلب العيش وبناء القدرات وحوكمة السياسات والاقتصادات واحترام الانسانليكون في مستوى المواجهة .

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