عاد عبد المهدي
نقاشات كثيرة حول ارتفاع سعر الدولار. وبعجالة نذكر سببين رئيسيين.
1- إنّها ظاهرة عالمية. وهو السبب الأساس. فشهد الدولار تصاعداً ملموساً خلال (2022) أمام باقيالعملات. وتراوحت النسب لأقل من (10% ) لكندا واستراليا والصين وماليزيا مثلاً، و (10%-20% ) لمنطقةاليورو، وكوريا الجنوبية والمملكة المتحدة واليابان، الخ، وحوالي (30%) لتركيا، و(40%) لمصر، فشملالجميع من دون استثناء.
والسبب الأساس يرتبط بالتطورات العالمية الأخيرة، وتقدم الكثير من الاقتصاديات، أمام تراجع مرحليوبنياني في الاقتصاد الامريكي. فلجأ “الفيدرالي” لرفع سعر الفائدة (7) مرات في أعلى دورة شهدها الدولارفي تاريخه، من (0.75%-1%) في (اذار2022) إلى (4.25%-4.50%) في نهاية العام. بهدف إيقاف ارتفاعالأسعار وخفض التضخم إلى (2%).
سيرتد الاجراء على الدول جميعها. فالدولار برغم تراجعه في احتياطيات الدول من (75%) سنة (2000) إلى (58.8%) نهاية 2022، ما زال يشكل العملة العالمية الأولى بامتياز. إذ يتم التداول يومياً (اكرر يومياً) بما يقارب (6) ترليون دولار في شتى المعاملات. فـ“الفيدرالي” ليس البنك المركزي الامريكي فقط، بل هوايضاً قيادة المصارف والاقتصاد الامريكيين، وقيادتهما بالتالي –منذ أربعينيات القرن العشرين– لشبكةالمصارف والاقتصاديات العالمية. وإن ارتفاع سعر الفائدة سيؤدّي لسحب المزيد من الدولارات، وارتفاع كلفالقروض، ليس امريكياً فقط، بل عالمياً ايضاً. فتولد زخماً هائلاً نحو الدولار وايداعه في مواقع مطمئنةلمالكيه. فتتحرك العوامل المحلية والخارجية، الفرعية والاساسية، السياسية والاقتصادية والمضاربةوالنفسية، القصيرة والبعيدة الأجل، لطلب الدولار. وهو ما تشهده –بنسب متفاوتة– جميع البلدان، ومنهاالعراق.
هذه السياسة تعكس ايضاً أزمة النظام العالمي، الذي ندفع جميعاً أثمانها. فهي سياسة تسعى من جهةلتخفيف ضغط ارتفاع الأسعار على العائلة الامريكية لأغراض اقتصادية وانتخابية، لكنها بالمقابل مضطرةلتوفير سيولات يحتاجها الاقتصاد الامريكي، فيضطر لطبع المزيد من الدولارات بدون حقيقة اقتصاديةموازية أو داعمة. ما يقود للمديونية التي تبلغ اليوم (31.5) ترليون دولار، وتمثل (135.2%) من الناتجالوطني، وتقول: هل من مزيد. فارتفاع سعر الدولار سيشجع الاستيراد ويضعف الصادرات الامريكية، ويزيدمن أزمة تنافسية الاقتصاد الامريكي. وتبين الاحصاءات تراجع الصادرات الامريكية في الاقتصاد العالمي منذ(2000) من (12%) إلى (8%). فمعالجة العاجل على حساب الآجل، أمر يحذّر منه الكثير من الاقتصاديينوالسياسيين الامريكيين أنفسهم.
2- إنّها ظاهرة محلية، فالعراق يعتمد في موارده على النفط اساساً، المرتبط بالدولار.كما أنه بسبب نمطيةاقتصاده، يعتمد اساساً الاستيراد السلعي والخدمي (79.4 مليار دولار في 2021، بحسب منظمة التجارةالدولية لتمثل 24.2% من الناتج الاجمالي)، من دون ذكر المعاملات والتحويلات غير الموثقة. فمثلاً جاءالعراقيون في المرتبة الثالثة في شراء العقارات التركية، بواقع (6241) عقاراً في (2022). وبحسبة بسيطةنتكلم عن حوالي المليار دولار، ستحوّل أغلب مبالغها بطرق ملتوية. وقس على ذلك.
يقول البعض : إنّ السبب الرئيس لما يجري هو لإيقاف غسيل العملة وتهريبها والعقوبات على إيران. ونرىفي ذلك عاملاً ثانوياً أمام العاملين العالمي كأساس، والمحلي باعتبارنا اقتصادا ريعيا يعتمد على البترودولاروالاستيراد. فتلك العوامل (التهريب والعقوبات) كانت موجودة قبل تخفيض سعر الدينار. ولتنشيط الذاكرةنشير إلى انه في (4/10/2003)، وهو أول يوم لتدخل المركزي العراقي –وإقرار مبدأ التعويم النسبيللدينار، بعد انتهاء نظام سعر الصرف الرسمي الثابت– قام البنك ببيع الدولار بــ(1920) دينار/دولار، مقابلسعر سوقي مقداره (2180) دينار/دولار. واستمرت سياسة المركزي بادارة الراحل الشبيبي ونائبه الأستاذمظهر، ليستقر سعره الرسمي حول (1180) دينار/دولار، واستمر كذلك مع خلفهما حتى نهاية 2020. وخلالهذه المدة انخفض التضخم إلى رقم احادي واحد، بعد أن كان لمدة رقمين (60% احياناً)، واستقرت أسعارالأسواق إلى حد كبير، مع بقاء الكثير من الثغرات والسلبيات، والمسؤول عنها ليس السياسة النقدية فقط، بلمجمل السياستين المالية والاقتصادية.
إنّ الأزمة الحالية في دوافعها الداخلية ترتبط بقرار التخفيض غير الموفق في نهاية (2020) بمبرر توفيرأموال لتغطية بعض عجز موازنة (2021) المقترحة عندما كان سعر النفط (50) دولاراً تقريباً. فاتُّخِذ القراروأصبح نافذاً، بتأثيرات خارجية، ووجود ملكيين لدينا أكثر من الملك نفسه، فيبالغون في خوفهم واجراءاتهم.
فتخفيض العملة خيار نوقش في حكومة الدكتور العبادي وحكومتنا، ورُفض لعدم واقعيته ومضاعفاته،برغم أن سعر النفط انهار لأقل من (30) دولارا/برميل يومها، وبلغ (17) دولارا/برميل احياناً، وهبطتاحتياطيات البنك المركزي لحوالي (40) مليار دولار، وكانت العقوبات على إيران على أشدها، إضافة لبقيةالضغوطات السلبية.
فالأزمة الحالية –إضافة للعامل الخارجي الأساس– هي أزمة سياسية ومرض اقتصادي داخلي. تتطلبمعالجة جذرية للسياستين المالية والاقتصادية، وهما المرتكزان الاساسيان للسياسة النقدية.
عادل عبد المهدي
This is very interesting, You’re an excessively skilled blogger. I have joined your rss feed and look forward to in quest of extra of your magnificent post. Also, I’ve shared your website in my social networks!
Very good written story. It will be helpful to anybody who employess it, as well as myself. Keep doing what you are doing – looking forward to more posts.
I have recently started a site, the information you offer on this website has helped me tremendously. Thank you for all of your time & work.
I was just looking for this info for some time. After six hours of continuous Googleing, at last I got it in your web site. I wonder what is the lack of Google strategy that don’t rank this type of informative sites in top of the list. Normally the top web sites are full of garbage.
Great wordpress blog here.. It’s hard to find quality writing like yours these days. I really appreciate people like you! take care
Fantastic web site. A lot of helpful information here. I’m sending it to a few friends ans additionally sharing in delicious. And of course, thanks for your effort!
Some genuinely great content on this internet site, appreciate it for contribution. “I finally know what distinguishes man from other beasts financial worries. – Journals” by Jules Renard.
Pretty! This was a really wonderful post. Thank you for your provided information.
I regard something genuinely special in this internet site.
You actually make it appear so easy along with your presentation however I find this topic to be actually one thing that I believe I might by no means understand. It sort of feels too complicated and extremely large for me. I am having a look forward to your next post, I’ll attempt to get the dangle of it!
Puravive is a weight loss supplement that targets the root cause of weight gain issues in men and women.
I always was concerned in this subject and still am, appreciate it for posting.
I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this site. I’m hoping the same high-grade site post from you in the upcoming as well. In fact your creative writing skills has encouraged me to get my own site now. Actually the blogging is spreading its wings fast. Your write up is a good example of it.
Just desire to say your article is as amazing. The clarity on your put up is simply excellent and i could assume you’re an expert on this subject. Well along with your permission let me to seize your RSS feed to keep up to date with impending post. Thank you one million and please continue the enjoyable work.
certainly like your web-site but you need to test the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling issues and I in finding it very troublesome to tell the reality nevertheless I’ll surely come again again.
I’ve been browsing on-line greater than three hours these days, yet I never found any attention-grabbing article like yours. It is lovely price sufficient for me. Personally, if all website owners and bloggers made just right content as you did, the net will be a lot more useful than ever before.
It’s arduous to search out educated folks on this subject, however you sound like you understand what you’re speaking about! Thanks
What is ZenCortex? ZenCortex is a cutting-edge dietary supplement meticulously crafted to provide essential nutrients that support and enhance healthy hearing
As soon as I detected this site I went on reddit to share some of the love with them.
Thanks for ones marvelous posting! I definitely enjoyed reading it, you can be a great author.I will remember to bookmark your blog and will often come back in the foreseeable future. I want to encourage yourself to continue your great work, have a nice holiday weekend!
I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. thanks a lot
You have brought up a very excellent details , regards for the post.
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thanks again
What Is Sumatra Slim Belly Tonic? Sumatra Slim Belly Tonic is a natural formula that supports healthy weight loss.
What Is Sumatra Slim Belly Tonic? Sumatra Slim Belly Tonic is a weight management formula that is said to eliminate excess body fat naturally.
Can I just say what a aid to seek out someone who really is aware of what theyre talking about on the internet. You definitely know methods to carry an issue to gentle and make it important. More folks need to learn this and perceive this side of the story. I cant imagine youre no more in style because you positively have the gift.
I was more than happy to seek out this web-site.I needed to thanks for your time for this excellent read!! I definitely having fun with each little bit of it and I’ve you bookmarked to check out new stuff you weblog post.
Hi! Quick question that’s completely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My weblog looks weird when viewing from my iphone4. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to correct this problem. If you have any recommendations, please share. Thanks!
What is Aizen Power? Aizen Power is an all-natural supplement to improve overall male health.
F*ckin’ amazing things here. I am very glad to see your post. Thanks a lot and i am looking forward to contact you. Will you please drop me a e-mail?
I like this post, enjoyed this one regards for putting up.
Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it is really informative. I’m going to watch out for brussels. I’ll appreciate if you continue this in future. Many people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!
ProvaDent: What Is It? ProvaDent is a natural tooth health supplement by Adam Naturals.
Hi just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading properly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different browsers and both show the same results.
Fantastic web site. Plenty of helpful information here. I am sending it to a few buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And of course, thanks for your sweat!
You completed some good points there. I did a search on the topic and found the majority of persons will have the same opinion with your blog.
I think this site has some very fantastic info for everyone : D.
Thank you for sharing superb informations. Your website is very cool. I’m impressed by the details that you have on this blog. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this web page, will come back for more articles. You, my friend, ROCK! I found just the info I already searched all over the place and just couldn’t come across. What a perfect web-site.
What is Lottery Defeater Software? Lottery Defeater Software is a plug-and-play Lottery Winning Software that is fully automated. Kenneth created the Lottery Defeater software. Every time someone plays the lottery, it increases their odds of winning by around 98.
Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.
What are Ageless Knees? Ageless Knees is a knee pain relieving program. Chris Ohocinski, a State-Licensed and Nationally Certified Athletic Trainer, came up with this program.
F*ckin¦ amazing things here. I am very glad to see your article. Thank you so much and i am taking a look ahead to contact you. Will you please drop me a mail?
I really appreciate this post. I?¦ve been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thank you again
Hey, you used to write magnificent, but the last few posts have been kinda boring?K I miss your great writings. Past few posts are just a little bit out of track! come on!
Very interesting topic, thankyou for posting.
WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..more wait .. …
I’ve been surfing on-line more than 3 hours today, yet I by no means found any attention-grabbing article like yours. It’s pretty value enough for me. In my opinion, if all webmasters and bloggers made excellent content as you probably did, the net might be much more useful than ever before.
Whats up this is somewhat of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding skills so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!
With the whole thing that seems to be developing inside this area, a significant percentage of points of view happen to be somewhat exciting. Even so, I appologize, but I can not subscribe to your entire plan, all be it stimulating none the less. It looks to everyone that your remarks are actually not completely justified and in actuality you are yourself not really completely certain of your point. In any case I did enjoy looking at it.
Great post, I believe website owners should acquire a lot from this weblog its real user friendly.
Please let me know if you’re looking for a article author for your blog. You have some really great articles and I believe I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d absolutely love to write some articles for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please send me an email if interested. Kudos!
Pretty great post. I simply stumbled upon your weblog and wished to say that I have really loved browsing your blog posts. In any case I’ll be subscribing in your rss feed and I hope you write again soon!
Some truly interesting points you have written.Assisted me a lot, just what I was searching for : D.
I like what you guys are up also. Such clever work and reporting! Carry on the excellent works guys I have incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it will improve the value of my web site :).
Wow! Thank you! I continually needed to write on my site something like that. Can I include a portion of your post to my blog?