رغم اعلان الرئيس الامريكي جو بايدن الانخراط في مسار العودة لمفاوضات
الملف النووي الايراني، وتصريح وزير خارجيته بالرغبة الامريكية المشروطة بايفاء
ايران بالتزاماتها، والتي سبقت ذلك كله الاتصال الهاتفي الذي قامت به السيد
ميركل بالرئيس روحاني ، إلا ان صافرة البداية لم تبدأ بعد .
فالولايات المتحدة تصر على تراجع ايران عن خطواتهاطيب التي قامت بها مؤخراً
وان تفي بشروط الاتفاق بالكامل لكي تحدد موعداً للجلوس على طاولة الحوار
، ايران هي الاخرى تقول ان حجز مقاعد الجلوس على الطاولة مرهون برفع
الولايات المتحدة العقوبات عنها، والتي تعتبرها بادرة حسن نية تجاهها .
وبين معادلة البيضة من الدجاجة ام الدجاجة من البيضة ، يطالب وزير الخارجية
الايراني بكفيل اوربي يضمن التزام امريكا برفع العقوبات والتنسيق بين الجانبين
وهو امر قد يكون شكلياً. او تحصيل حاصل كما يسمى. لكن يبدو من خال
هذا السجال ان ازمة الثقة بين الطرفين ليست المحرك الاساس لهذا التنازع
في اتخاذ الخطوة الاولى. بل هناك اسباب اخرى ربما تخص الجانب الايراني.
فطهران لديها الرغبة ان تبادر هي اولا ، برغم التصريحات الرنانة التي تطلقها
لكن الواقع يقول انها تريد ان تنهي هذه الازمة عاجلاً، لكنها متخوفة من جانب
وتريد ان تعكس صورة اقتدارها امام شعبها من جانب اخر .
فايران المحاصرة والمنهوكة اقتصاديا تحتاج الى رفع معنوياتها الداخلية واثبات
قدرتها على فرض شروطها على الامريكان ولو ظاهريا. لذا طالب وزير الخارجية
الايراني محمد جواد ظريف منسق الشؤون الخارجية في الاتحاد الاوربي جوزيب
بوريل بالتنسيق والاعداد للمفاوضات. وطلب السيد ظريف جاء بعد اجتماع
الدول الاعضاء في الاتفاق النووي الذين اكدوا الحفاظ على الاتفاق كما اكدوا
على التزامهم به. كما جاء عقب تغريدة السيد جوزيب التي قال فيها : ان اننا
اتفقنا بشان معالجة التحديات المتعلقة بتنفيذ الاتفاق النووي بما في ذلك الحد
من انتشار الساح النووي والالتزام بالغاء الحظر )المفروض على ايران(.
وبعد هذه التصريحات الاوربية المؤكدة والداعمة للعودة ، لم يعد هناك ضرورة
لطلب السيد ظريف من منسق الشؤون الخارجية بالتنسيق في المفاوضات سوى
الرسالة الداخلية للايرانيين التي ذكرناها ، فالاتحاد الاوربي قد لعب دور المنسق
عام 2015 وهو الشريك الاساس في الاتفاق ، وسيلعب هذا الدور مستقبلاً. فدول
الاتحاد لم يكونوا على توافق مع خطوة الانسحاب من الاتفاق التي قام بها الرئيس
ترامب ، لذا من الطبيعي ان يكون الاوربيون متحمسين لترميم ما افسده ترامب.
وهناك أسباب اخرى ستجعل الاوربيين والامريكان مبادرين لأول اشارة ايرانية، منها
الشركات الاوربية التي توقف عملها بسبب العقوبات المفروضة على ايران والتي
كيدها خسائر كبيرة، فهي تريد عودة نشاطها باعتبارها ايران الارض المتلهفة
لمثل هذه الشركات. ومن جانب ثانٍ لغلق الطريق امام الشركات الصينية التي
بدأت تنشر اذرعها في ايران مستغلةً الفراغ الاوربي . وربما هناك سبب ثالث ،
وهو التخوف من عودة طالبان التي تتمتع بعلاقة جيدة مع ايران، كما اشيع مؤخراً.
فايران يمكنها ان تكون صمام امان امام اي خطر من جانب طالبان .
ولعل التوق في انهاء هذا الملف هو للتفرغ لمواجهة الصين وروسيا ، التي قال
عنها الرئيس بايدن ان المواجهة ستكون قصوى وقوية. فالملف الايراني وخطوة
البدء ليست مهمة بقدر اهمية الموافقة على استئناف الحوار، وتحييد ايران في
الصراع القادم بين الاقطاب .
وسنسمع في القريب عن موعد ومكان جلسة البدء بالمفاوضات ، وسينتهي ملف
اليمن والعراق وسوريا، كما سيتم الاتفاق حول الملف الفلسطيني.
وسيبدأ الطرفان بالخطوة الاولى سوياً .
من يتخذ الخطوة الاولى امريكا أم ايران
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